While it is way too early to make a definitive call on March qtr iPod units, we have analyzed the first month of NPD data (Jan.) for the quarter and found that it suggests iPod units of 9.5m-10.3m. Street consensus for March qtr iPods is 10.8m, representing a 2% y/y increase; the mid point of the 9.5m-10.3m range suggests a 6% y/y decline.
We see this data point as a slight positive, given recent Street chatter of a very weak iPod number for the qtr, and we note that the monthly contribution we have factored in for Feb. & March may prove too conservative given the iPod shuffle price cut on 2/19, leading to a more back-end-loaded qtr for iPod units.
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